Armed Standoffs, Discounts, and NASCAR: Why People Buy Violent Extremism

Domestic violent extremism has recently migrated from the fringes of American society to become a major security threat. The movement’s large size and potential to destabilize institutions became apparent to most Americans on January 6, 2021 with the insurrection at the Capitol. What also became obvious is how little we know about the organizations at the heart of the movement.

As part of my Ph.D. dissertation, I examined the recruitment methods used by domestic violent extremist groups, with a particular focus on the Oath Keepers, one of America’s largest paramilitary organizations and an instrumental actor in the January 6 insurrection. Although membership in the Oath Keepers does not necessarily mean a person harbors extremist views, the leadership of Oath Keepers have planned and participated in politically violent events and the group is classified as a domestic violent extremist group.

Americans got a brief glimpse into the shrouded world of home-grown violent extremism when the Oath Keepers’ membership roster and internal communications were leaked. Hackers infiltrated the group’s administrative website, took the data, and made it available to academics and reporters through Distributed Denial of Secrets. The data provides never-before-seen access into the growth and prevalence of a prominent paramilitary organization. We learned, for example, that the Oath Keepers got their start in rural areas before quickly expanding to 80 percent of counties in the United States. They had higher membership rates in predominantly white, Libertarian or Republican counties with lower household incomes, and their membership roster included many elected officials, law enforcement officers, and military personnel.

We also learned that anyone could become an official member of the Oath Keepers by signing up on their website and paying a $40 membership fee. The group used three recruitment tactics to entice people to buy an official membership: membership discounts, sports sponsorships to increase their visibility, and participation in armed standoffs to signal their ideological fervor.

How effective were these membership recruitment tactics, and what do they reveal about why people buy violent extremism?

Membership Discounts

Oath Keepers’ membership discounts aimed to alleviate potential recruits’ uncertainty about joining. Before 2021, the Oath Keepers were relatively anonymous, and their ideological beliefs were still uncertain. Potential members didn’t know much about the group, making it harder to convince them to pay annual dues. One way to alleviate this challenge was to offer cheaper dues in the hopes that recruits would see the value of membership during the trial run and choose to stay on. In economics, this would be called an “experience good.”

The Oath Keepers offered a 25 percent discount on a $40 annual membership five times. This $10 savings might seem small, but it brought in new members four out of the five times. The most striking feature is not that the discounts worked, but how well they worked. Membership skyrocketed by 100-400 percent. The large increase in membership from such a small price change suggests that the Oath Keepers were recruiting from a pool of uninformed potential members. This means that little nudges to the group could be exceptionally effective.

Sports Sponsorships

Another tactic used to connect with recruits was sports sponsorship; the Oath Keepers sponsored a NASCAR driver for about three months. Sports sponsorships can increase the salience of a product or group and decrease anonymity through increased brand awareness within target demographics. Intuitively, increased brand recognition should increase recruitment. Surprisingly, though, this tactic had the opposite effect. Instead of attracting new members, the sponsorship led to a decrease in recruitment. While extremist groups may benefit from ideological signaling, purely commercial visibility without a strong ideological message appears to alienate potential recruits. The failure of the NASCAR sponsorship underscores the importance of authenticity and ideological consistency in extremist recruitment.

Armed Standoffs

Finally, the Oath Keepers convinced prospective members of their unbridled dedication to domestic extremism by credibly signaling their beliefs. They did this through armed standoffs. Between 2013 and 2018, the Oath Keepers participated in armed standoffs against federal officials at Bundy Ranch and Big Sky. In these events, the Oath Keepers built armed outposts and patrolled properties—at the request of the owners—as interference in federal disputes. These events cast the Oath Keepers as an ideological beacon to potential recruits. Such acts of political violence tend to be celebrated by right-wing populists and sometimes supported by local officials. Extremist groups in other parts of the world also employ similar tactics, sometimes through violence, calls to a collective cause, or ideologically based passionate narratives.

Prospective members responded strongly to these actions. The three callouts attracted over 1,000 new members—a nearly 200 percent increase—with the strongest effect happening in the most Republican or Libertarian counties. The massive member influx suggests that potential recruits value being in organizations that embody certain ideologies. When the Oath Keepers credibly showcase these ideologies, they are rewarded with more members—and membership dues.

By focusing on the “pull factors” of recruitment—specifically ideological signaling and financial incentives—this research offers a new perspective on the mechanisms that drive extremism in the United States. People wish to join groups they believe in and are not enticed by unsubstantial advertisements. And recruitment efforts have been most effective in white, Republican or Libertarian counties.

From a policy perspective, these results offer some insights into how threats from extremist organizations might be reduced. The Oath Keepers demonstrated a cost-effective way to showcase ideological fervor, which was rewarded with more recruits. Contrary to the group’s ideologically driven persona, interviews and congressional testimony from former members assert that the organization was focused on revenue, selling their form of violent extremism for profit. Quickly, publicly, and credibly highlighting such hypocrisies is likely to slow the inflow of new members, starving the group of organizational capacity and revenue. Additionally, the membership discounts highlight that the Oath Keepers are not at all selective in their recruitment, unlike other violent organizations. This means they can be infiltrated, which would compromise their ability to organize illegal activity secretly. These insights further our understanding of how groups sell violent extremism.

Danny Klinenberg is a Nonresident Fellow at IGCC. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or U.S. Government. For a more detailed look at the research that inspired this blog, read Danny’s working paper, Selling Violent Extremism.

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