How “America First” Aids China’s Global Influence

The United States and China are facing off in a global competition for hearts and minds. Each country is investing in efforts to enhance its image abroad. China promotes itself as a “responsible power” through its involvement in global governance. Its Belt and Road Initiative, for example, invests in other countries’ development to show China in a favorable light. China’s involvement in the United Nations (UN) and other international organizations is similarly designed to portray China as a leading stakeholder within the international community.

The United States, too, has long used the vast network of international rules and institutions to play a global leadership role and promote its values abroad. The success of those efforts in winning “hearts and minds” was always uneven, but the strategy was seriously challenged during the first Trump administration as the United States withdrew from several international commitments. 

In 2025, the second Trump administration’s potential to withdraw from and challenge international organizations could undermine U.S. leadership yet again. Abandoning international commitments would weaken the U.S. position in its competition with China and damage our reputation among allies and partners. Although some argue that focusing on American primacy demands limiting American commitments to international organizations and denouncing “sovereignty-eroding agreements,” a strategy of exit will make the larger U.S. goal of outcompeting China for global influence much harder to achieve.  

American Exit in Trump’s First Term: From Leader to Bystander

“The future does not belong to globalists,” President Trump told the UN General Assembly in 2019, “the future belongs to patriots.” Trump’s “Make America Great Again” agenda focused greater attention on domestic problems and led to a foreign policy antagonistic toward international organizations. While the current set of international rules and institutions has been closely associated with the United States—so much so that scholars have described it as an American-led order—the first Trump administration was critical of U.S. involvement in the UN and other global bodies. 

During the first Trump administration, officials expressed concern about the fairness of international organizations—they argued that the United States gave too much and partners, too little. U.S. allies were called on to increase their financial contributions to mutual defense and make more equitable investments in armaments. International organizations like the UN were no longer described as a source of American power but instead as a drain on the country’s finances. 

Consequently, Trump called for a reinvestment in American sovereignty and an inward focus on national renewal. This view ultimately led to the United States severing ties with many organizations that it created, including the UN Human Rights Council, Population Fund (UNFPA), and Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). It also revoked its commitments from international treaties and agreements, such as the Global Compact on Migration, the Paris Climate Accords, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Treaty on Open Skies, the Arms Trade Treaty, and the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF).

When America Retreats, China Leads

As the United States’ leadership on the global stage ebbed during the first Trump administration, China asserted a leadership role. Its nationals have increasingly held positions of global power, serving as secretary-general of four of the 17 specialized UN agencies and increasingly working within the UN as international civil servants. As China has grown more powerful, it has sought to embed Chinese ideas within international law and norms.

While the United States created the rules of the game for the Internet, China could lead and set the rules on artificial intelligence. In cyber governance, which seeks to mitigate the potential for cyber conflict, China has rapidly proposed a slate of new international norms that depart from an American vision of Internet freedom and promoting human rights online to emphasize cyber sovereignty and government control. While the United States has mainly focused on blocking the sale of technology through export controls, China is hosting global conferences and submitting proposals for global governance on artificial intelligence to the United Nations.

American withdrawal is permissive of China’s goals to lead and build new visions of international collaboration. In issue areas important to national security, such as cyber and artificial intelligence, China is actively involved in setting international rules. By arguing for greater cyber sovereignty and fairness in Internet governance, China and Russia successfully garnered votes for building a UN Cybercrime Convention, despite U.S. criticism of the process. The pair also launched a state-led concept of global governance for cybersecurity in the United Nations over calls to keep cyberspace expert-led. The examples reflect China’s growing influence in an era of U.S. retreat.

How American Exit Fuels China’s Discourse Power

American criticism of international organizations weakens U.S. influence in emerging challenges and allows China to position itself as the more responsible global leader. U.S. withdrawals from international organizations fueled Chinese rhetoric questioning American leadership and framing it as unfair when commitments are made only to be abandoned. China has successfully used these rhetorical strategies to build coalitions and garner international allies. 

China attempts to win hearts and minds through its concept of discourse power: the use of narratives to gain global influence. Chinese narratives underscore the vacuum left by U.S. withdrawal from international organizations. Describing U.S. foreign policy under Trump, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that walking away from international organizations and treaties represents the United States “placing its self-interest first,” and has drawn “growing, intense criticism and opposition from the international community.” As the United States turns inward, China has increasingly called for greater multilateralism—an indirect denouncement of what China sees as the United States’ unilateral approach to global governance.

In contrast to the United States, China positions itself as a responsible major power. For instance, following the United States withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. China denounced American exit to the international community. While the United States prioritized domestic concerns, China launched a spate of global diplomacy efforts aimed at helping developing countries meet the challenges of climate change and enhancing these countries’ representation in global governance. As the issue area is particularly salient to smaller nations where climate change represents a national security threat, American exit can be used to win favor for China’s leadership.

Examples of American withdrawal provide fodder for Chinese rhetoric that blames the United States and not China for upending the current international system. It creates the potential for China to garner greater support from the international community, particularly from developing countries that seek solutions to global challenges. 

To Win Hearts and Minds, Stick with International Commitments

Trump’s expressed wish to withdraw from international organizations is at odds with his desire to successfully compete with China. Instead, it opens the door for Chinese global leadership in a previously American-led order. 

Foreign audiences are not interested in a zero-sum game between the United States and China for global governance. Developing countries, in particular, do not see great power competition as a means for meeting emerging global challenges. 

To truly win hearts and minds, the United States should remain committed to international organizations and invest in their mandates. Supporting international organizations and proposing solutions to global challenges is the surest way to safeguard American influence in a changing global landscape.  

Rachel Hulvey is an IGCC nonresident fellow and a postdoctoral fellow at the Columbia-Harvard China and the World program and the Harvard Belfer International Security Program.

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