A Realist Reassessment of China’s Rise in East Asia
In this working paper, Yuji Idomoto, a UC San Diego postdoctoral scholar, reexamines the traditional security threats posed by China’s rise in East Asia through the lens of the realist theory, concluding that China’s capabilities and intentions do not warrant the level of alarm often portrayed.
DownloadChina’s rise is widely viewed as a destabilizing force in East Asia, prompting concerns of heightened military competition or even an arms race. In this working paper, Yuji Idomoto, a postdoctoral scholar at the UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy, challenges such assumptions by reexamining traditional security threats through the lens of realist theory. Drawing on offensive and defensive realism, Idomoto argues that China’s capabilities and revisionist intentions—while significant—do not warrant the level of alarm often portrayed. Regional capability balances, geographic buffers, and the high costs of territorial aggression constrain China’s ability to project traditional military power. Moreover, China’s increasing reliance on gray-zone tactics and geoeconomic tools suggests a strategic shift away from direct military confrontation. Empirical analysis reveals that East Asian states’ military responses remain moderate, especially when compared globally. Taken together, this paper offers a more calibrated understanding of East Asia’s evolving security landscape.
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