Allies Navigate the Trump-Xi Summit

During his May visit to China, President Donald Trump received a grand welcome from Xi Jinping. The arrival ceremony embodied the communist regime’s centralized system, with a military honor guard marching in sync and hundreds of schoolchildren jumping up and down while waving the flags of both countries. Trump expressed his gratitude and referred to Xi as a “friend” and a “great leader.” And in a speech delivered at the welcome banquet, Xi reciprocated, saying “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and ‘Make America Great Again’ can go hand in hand,” and asserted that the United States and China “should be partners, not rivals.”

The summit highlighted the significant gap between the United States’ and China’s priorities. Xi is increasing China’s territorial ambitions under the slogan of the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” with the ultimate goal to annex Taiwan and expand China’s presence in the East and South China Seas. On the other hand, under its “America First” policy, the Trump administration seems focused on securing economic deals and is even willing to use other countries’ security as a negotiating card.

Countries threatened by China, such as Taiwan and Japan, should come to terms with the true nature of the maneuvering between the United States and China. What the summit—and indeed, the record since his second inauguration—shows is that Trump is transactional; he will sacrifice allies’ interests to get a deal. American allies must therefore adopt a forward-looking approach to implement measures to avert worst-case scenarios that could jeopardize their own national survival. It is important, for example, to avoid excessive reliance on the United States and to strengthen security ties with other like-minded countries.

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Trump’s primary focus at the summit was securing an economic deal favorable to the United States. In addition to his family members, Trump was accompanied by tech and other business CEOs, including Elon Musk, Tim Cook, and Jensen Huang, among others. Xi agreed to buy at least $17 billion in American agricultural goods annually through 2028, as well as 200 Boeing commercial aircraft. Trump and Xi also established the U.S.-China Board of Trade and the U.S.-China Board of Investment, two new institutions designed to optimize their economic relationship or at least serve as another bilateral venue for negotiations.

There were some criticisms in the United States that Trump’s fawning over Xi made the United States look weak. Meanwhile, in Japan, concerns were raised as Trump and Xi drew closer, given the severe cooling of Japan-China relations following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remark on Taiwan in November 2025. At that time, she asserted in the Diet that a Chinese naval blockade of Taiwan could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, marking the first time a Japanese leader legally linked a Taiwan contingency to collective self-defense and potential military intervention. Japan’s major media outlets warned that rapprochement between the United States and China will lead to Japan’s isolation.

Not surprisingly, the summit also underlined differences between the two leaders regarding Taiwan. During the summit, Xi warned Trump that if the Taiwan issue is handled poorly, they could enter into conflict and “push the entire China-U.S. relationship into an extremely dangerous place.” Trump shrugged off the threat and maintained a policy of strategic ambiguity. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is known for his hawkish stance toward China, emphasized that U.S. policy toward Taiwan remains unchanged. However, Trump openly warned Taiwan against declaring independence and said that he was still undecided on a $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan. Despite the approval of an $11.1 billion arms package last December, the summit led Trump to drag out his response regarding the new arms package.

Again, close partners were left uncertain about U.S. objectives. Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, while emphasizing gratitude for U.S. support, nonetheless expressed concerns about Trump’s remarks on the arms sale. While asserting that he would never intentionally provoke conflict or escalate tensions, he made it clear that Taiwan would not give up its sovereignty and freedom either. The fact that Trump was accompanied by CEOs of major corporations seeking to deepen their economic bonds with China (including Musk, who has previously proposed that Taiwan become a “special administrative zone” of China) will leave lasting questions in Taipei. If Trump is using strategic ambiguity as a point of possible leverage in economic negotiations, what does that say about his commitment to the island?

A more charitable interpretation is that Trump’s excessive flattery toward Xi was likely not so much a sign of weakness toward China, but rather something more strategic. Given that Xi is scheduled to visit the United States in September, this summit is best viewed as a small stepping stone toward future negotiations that now date back to the economic truce at the Busan summit in October of last year. Trust was hardly at a premium. Trump, as well as every member of the U.S. delegation, including the business leaders and reporters, publicly disposed of every item provided by the Chinese side—from badges and pins to other gifts —before boarding Air Force One, in part out of concern about possible technology risks. The symbolism was potent.

Given China’s unease over events in Venezuela and Iran, which demonstrate the United States’ superior military and intelligence-gathering capabilities, Xi must be increasingly frustrated by his failure to secure a commitment from Trump that the United States will not intervene if China moves more forcefully against Taiwan. On his way back from China, Trump called Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi from Air Force One to brief her on the summit details and “to reaffirm ‘ironclad’ U.S.-Japan alliance.” While good news for Japan, such moves can also be interpreted as mere strategic maneuvers to secure more favorable terms at the next summit.

The question is, what will be the ultimate outcome of this shrewd maneuvering on the part of the Trump administration? How long this political charade can be dragged out largely depends on Trump’s tactics; however, China appears to be extremely serious about invading Taiwan, and it is unlikely that Xi will continue to allow himself to be swayed by Trump’s fawning and strategic ambiguity.

Amid the unfolding of advanced political maneuvering, what is most crucial is strategic foresight. Although some people believe his behavior is unpredictable, the Trump administration’s strategy is grounded in a consistent “America First” philosophy. While fully acknowledging that he would never make a decision that undermines American interests, countries threatened by China must adopt a forward-looking strategy to ensure their own survival. For example, it is essential to strengthen self-defense capabilities while deepening partnerships with countries other than the United States.

Japan and the Philippines recently signed the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) to facilitate cooperative activities, including joint military exercises, and the Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA) to ensure the smooth provision of supplies and services, and are currently negotiating the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA). Japan is also expanding its defense cooperation with Germany and Australia. Despite the constraint of being unable to establish formal military agreements, Taiwan is also advancing its technology and intelligence sharing with various countries—including joint development of drones with Czechia and Poland, more joint exercises with Japan, and cybersecurity collaboration with the Netherlands. The leaders of U.S. allies are required to possess advanced negotiation skills that rival—if not surpass—those of Trump.

Miki Hayashi is a PhD candidate in political science at UC Riverside and a 2025-26 IGCC Dissertation Fellow.

Thumbnail credit: The White House