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University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

Are Russia’s Threats Credible?

February 23, 2022
Stephen Shulman and Stephen Bloom

Blog

In analysis for Political Violence At A Glance, an IGCC-supported blog dedicated to political violence and its alternatives, Stephen Shulman and Stephen Bloom, both Associate Professors of political science at Southern Illinois University, analyze the brewing tensions between Russia, Ukraine, and the West.

The current crisis in Europe is a head-to-head battle of policies of coercive diplomacy: compellence by Russia and deterrence by the West. Russia’s demands focus on permanently reversing the expansion of Western military power into Ukraine, backed by the threat of military attack on Ukraine in the absence of compliance. Western policy seeks to deter such an attack by threatening painful economic sanctions and arming Ukraine to make such an attack more costly to Russia.

How credible is the Russian threat?

Read the full blog post at Political Violence At A Glance