Labor Unions Are Not the “Bulwark of Democracy”

In the face of contemporary democratic backsliding, are labor unions the “bulwark of democracy” that some have claimed? In this working paper, John Ahlquist and Theodoros Ntounias decompose this into two analytically distinct phases: prevention and resistance. They argue that unions’ traditional structural, associational, and social power has declined to the point where their preventive influence is quite weak. As structural and associational power has declined, institutional power is vulnerable, even where union membership remains high. Empirically, this paper shows that union density and coverage are uncorrelated with antidemocratic party vote shares across the OECD. In looking at resistance, the authors examine 11 episodes of twenty-first century democratic backsliding. In none of those cases were existing labor unions key players in resisting democratic erosion. In some instances, major unions were willing to capitulate to or even collaborate with increasingly undemocratic governments. Unions are not currently a reliable bulwark against backsliding, although they can and should be important parts of broader pro-democracy coalitions.

John Ahlquist is a professor of political economy at UC San Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy. Theodoros Ntounias is a political science PhD Candidate at UC San Diego and a 2025-2026 IGCC Dissertation Fellow.

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