Climate Disasters Are Putting Democracies to the Test

They’re called October surprises—unexpected events that impact November elections in the United States. But with hurricane season coming at the climax of the U.S. political calendar, and climate change making it worse, severe weather events in October are now anything but surprising.

In late October 2012—right before voters reelected President Obama—Hurricane Sandy battered the northeast, and the government response factored into 15 percent of voters’ decisions. This October, Hurricanes Helene and Milton slammed the southeast, providing fertile ground for misinformation about government actions in response to the disasters.

We don’t know what impact the two hurricanes had on the elections, which delivered a decisive defeat to the incumbent Democrats. But such an impact would fit an emerging pattern of how climate-related shocks are influencing democratic processes.

Our research reveals that the increased frequency and severity of natural disasters are challenging democratic governments. By intensifying environmental shocks and their socio-economic toll, climate change is stretching the ability of governments to respond effectively, particularly as these events become more frequent.

The result is citizens disillusioned with government performance, one result of which includes the electoral ousting of incumbent parties—the most persistent theme of this “year of elections.”

Far worse, however, is that increasingly frequent climate-induced disasters can foster dissatisfaction with democratic governance itself, resulting in democratic backsliding as citizens use extra-electoral means to force change and governments crack down on unrest.

Compounding Risks

The effects of climate change are becoming increasingly apparent. But so far, not much research has been conducted on its impact on democracy.

We examined the relationship between democracy and “compounded” climate shocks: severe weather events which are occurring more frequently, and often together. The consequences of these shocks are substantial—deaths, damaged property, lost income, reduced food and energy output—and they inflict pain beyond those directly affected, impacting society and the economy as a whole.

These disasters can contribute to democratic backsliding, particularly in states with limited capacity to adequately address them. Our research finds that insufficient responses damage the credibility of democracy and make unrest more likely.

Stress Testing Democratic Governance

Natural disasters place burdens on governments to provide public services and maintain order—critical state functions made more difficult by crises. Think of these disasters as “stress tests” of state capacity. When states fail the test, it brings to the surface citizens’ general dissatisfaction with underperforming governments.

Such failures can make states resort to repression to maintain order. In response to the chaos unleashed by Hurricane Katrina, the U.S. National Guard detained people without due process to forestall civil unrest. In India’s Maharashtra state, when farmers protested the subpar government response to a severe drought, protest leaders were arrested and Internet access was restricted to prevent further mobilization. And the government of Bangladesh collapsed after severe flooding triggered protests that prompted a deadly crackdown in 2024.

In addition to restraining freedoms, such actions diminish the credibility of democratic governance to deliver on citizens’ needs. But with adequate state capacity, unrest can be avoided. After severe floods in 2021, the German government responded capably after facing initial criticisms, allowing it to maintain stability amid the crisis.

Data Links Disasters to Democratic Backsliding

We looked at data on how the quality of democracy has changed across nearly 100 democracies from the 1970s to 2021, to see if natural disasters correlate with backsliding. We used V-Dem’s Electoral Democracy Index to track measures such as declining freedom of expression and association, information openness, and freeness and fairness in electoral processes. By looking at natural disasters irrespective of climate change’s influence, we were able to leverage historical data on environmental shocks to look ahead to how climate disasters may influence democracy in a more volatile natural world.

We found that repeated natural disasters can cause democratic backsliding, particularly when states have a lower capacity to respond to public grievances. The main culprit is the use of emergency measures which can be difficult to reverse and create habits of limiting democratic freedoms in times of crisis.

By putting state capacity to the test, natural disasters amplify social and political grievances. We find in the data that these shocks make democratic backsliding 1.5 times more likely, similar to the effect of populists taking power, as seen in V-Dem data.

A Challenging Environment

The effects of climate change are accelerating at a time when democracies are already facing growing pressures. Populists are winning elections, and autocracies are ascendant on the world’s stage. In a world of rapid technological, economic, and environmental change, not only are climate risks compounding—the risks to democracy are also.

In this context, it’s critical that democracies take seriously the danger that climate change poses to their form of government. While democracies have historically contributed the lion’s share of global emissions, they must now show that they can lead on decarbonization. And when disaster strikes, not only must democracies deliver on citizens’ needs in times of crisis—they cannot treat crises as opportunities to encroach on democratic freedoms.

A multitude of global currents are testing the ability of democracies to govern. Democracies must rise to the challenge.

Austin Beacham is a postdoctoral fellow at the Georgia Institute of Technology and a 2023-24 IGCC dissertation fellow. Emilie Hafner-Burton and Christina Schneider are professors at UC San Diego and co-directors of IGCC’s Future of Democracy initiative. For a more detailed look at the research that inspired this blog, read the authors’ working paper, Climate Change, Political Conflict, and Democratic Resilience.

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