IGCC Hosts Climate-Democracy Research Incubator

On January 30–31 at UC San Diego, the UC Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC) hosted ­­­a workshop on the links between climate change, democracy, and public backlash against green policies.

It was not a traditional academic workshop. There were no papers presented for feedback or lengthy PowerPoint presentations. Instead, in an airy room overlooking the Pacific Ocean, a group of democracy and climate experts came together to talk, debate, and build the foundations for a multidisciplinary research agenda on how climate change will impact democratic governance.

Emilie Hafner-Burton, IGCC co-director for the Future of Democracy initiative and professor at the UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy, described the event as “an incubator to bring together two distinct sides of the conversation to startup a new strand of research.” Participants included political scientists, economists, and earth scientists, with expertise in democratic backsliding, international organizations, climate science, and the global energy sector. Scholars from UC San Diego were joined by colleagues from other UCs—including Santa Barbara and Los Angeles—as well as from the University of Wisconsin, Ohio State, Stanford, Princeton, Harvard, and Georgetown, among others.

The opening roundtable examined public opposition to climate policies. Images of farmers blocking the streets outside of European Commission headquarters in Brussels to denounce enhanced environmental regulations in the agricultural industry, France’s yellow vest protests against increased fuel taxes, and pro-coal signage waved prominently at Trump campaign rallies have captured media attention in recent years and become a lightning rod in political debates on the energy transition.

Participants debated the nature—and even existence—of a so-called “green backlash.” “Does it represent a real shift in voter priorities,” asked Michael Ross, professor of political science at UCLA, “or is it just an optical illusion promulgated by right-wing populists?” Participants debated whether the recent wave of electoral successes by anti-establishment parties across the West reflected public frustration with green policies, or if that success was produced by broader dissatisfaction with politics-as-usual—for which green backlash may constitute a negligible part. “There’s a disconnect between the theory of green backlash and our empirical understanding of what’s actually happening,” said Matto Mildenberger, associate professor of political science at UC Santa Barbara.

While climate issues rarely take prominence in election campaigns, making it difficult to link green policy cause to democratic effect, participants agreed that the costs of green policies—as experienced in energy prices—weigh heavily on the public imagination. While climate policies impose immediate costs on the electorate—from taxes to regulations—the resulting climate benefits may not be realized for decades, creating difficulties in securing sustained political buy-in. Discussants also highlighted the role of disinformation on the part of special interests in distorting voters’ understanding of the costs and benefits inherent in climate policies. Finally, participants highlighted how other costs of the energy transition can unsettle identities and ways of life, particularly for communities where fossil fuel industries are foundational to the economic and social fabric.

The second roundtable zoomed out to consider broader questions about how climate change is impacting democracy itself. Research by scholars in IGCC’s Future of Democracy network suggests that the impacts of climate change may ultimately harm democracy. “In our empirical work, we’re finding that climate-induced shocks are creating social and economic grievances which pose challenges for all governments to address,” remarked Christina Schneider, professor at the UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy and IGCC co-director for the Future of Democracy initiative. “These shocks can deteriorate government capacities and could lead democracies to rein in civil liberties to maintain order.”

But among the range of issues thought to be driving democratic backsliding globally—from globalization, to immigration and cultural anxieties—how important is climate change? One participant asked where climate impacts might be ranked among the many contributing factors of democratic erosion—would climate even be in the top five of such a list?

Participants agreed that climate impacts will be destabilizing to all forms of government. But democracies face unique challenges. Whereas authoritarian states can unilaterally impose climate responses without consideration for electoral consequences, democratic states are more captive to public opinion and often less centralized, which could create deficiencies in responding to climate shocks. One participant asked why, for example, there hasn’t been a green backlash in China—which has rapidly and successfully implemented green policies to deploy renewable energy and electric vehicles—nor in other parts of the Global South. In Europe and North America, however, a vicious cycle could occur where voter opposition weakens climate action and unleashes more dangerous environmental shocks that could further destabilize democracy.

The mechanics of how climate change and democratic backsliding are taking shape and reinforcing each other were strongly debated. Workshop participants asked whether democratic erosion was a top-down or bottom-up phenomenon, led by political entrepreneurs who seize power and wield it undemocratically, or by voter demand for less-democratic forms of government. Along similar lines, the group debated whether opposition to green policies is a grassroots phenomenon or driven from the top by well-capitalized fossil fuel industries—and how such a reaction could play into democratic backsliding. Finally, participants asked whether climate shocks will test the legitimacy of democracy itself or merely incumbent governments’ ability to address them.

The workshop concluded with breakout groups that explored these issues in further depth. After these discussions, the wider group reconvened to chart next steps on this new research strand. Among the proposals were getting started on papers to keep the conversation going at future gatherings of the climate-democracy research network and an observatory bringing together climatological data and measures of their impact on social, economic, and political indicators. All agreed that the workshop in San Diego represents only the beginning of a longer dialogue as the network dives deeper into the rapidly developing connections between climate change and democracy.

Paddy Ryan is senior writer/editor at the UC Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC).